Staring into the Singularity
Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.
If computing speeds double every two years,
what happens when computer-based AIs are doing the research?
Computing speed doubles every two years.
Computing speed doubles every two years of work.
Computing speed doubles every two subjective years of work.
Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again.
Six months – three months – 1.5 months … Singularity.
Plug in the numbers for current computing speeds, the current doubling time, and an estimate for the raw processing power of the human brain, and the numbers match in: 2021.
Ignoring some of the mathematics involved (well not completely, but you can skim those sections and still get the jist of the article) the full article is a fascinating read. It can be heavy going, but stick with it as best you can. I think it’ll require a couple of re-reads to fully sink in, but my head hurts after just one session.
Alternatively, for an overview, visit the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence.